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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Wed 28th Jul 2021 - Marston’s – trading since 17 May better than expectations
Marston’s – trading since 17 May better than expectations: Marston’s has reported significantly improved trading since 17 May – described as “better than our expectations”. The group’s entire 1,500 pubs have been open since 17 May and business has been 92% of 2019 levels. The company stated: “Over 90% of Marston’s pubs have outside trading areas and the additional investment we made in our ‘Inside Out’ plans to enhance our external trading areas in Autumn 2020 has positively impacted trade since reopening in April. Looking ahead, these investments should also enable us to benefit from increased outdoor trading in early Spring and late Autumn. Since 17 May, overall sales have been encouraging, and better than our expectations, with the stronger performance driven by a combination of additional food covers, outdoor investment, warmer weather and the benefit of the delayed Euro 2020 tournament. The Brains estate, the operations of which acquired in February of this year, has performed well since reopening, with trading trends mirroring those of the core Marston’s estate. Accommodation sales have been excellent benefitting from restrictions on international travel and the growth in staycation holidays. We have provided like-for-like data including and excluding our 69 Carvery sites, as these inevitably faced particular challenges due to restrictions which prevented self-service, a fundamental component of the Carvery offer. Like-for-like sales in Carvery in the period since 12 April were 73% of their 2019 level. In the first week of trading since restrictions were lifted on 19 July, we have seen a modest uplift in sales. Whilst this is clearly encouraging, it is too early to extrapolate any meaningful trends at this stage. We have previously reported that we achieved break even from a cash flow and earnings perspective in April, and as a consequence of the easing of restrictions we generated positive earnings and cash flow in both May and June despite operating at around 70% capacity for those months.” Chief executive Ralph Findlay said: “The last 16 months have been extremely difficult, but we are delighted to be fully open again albeit taking our responsibilities seriously whist striving to offer our guests a genuine but safe pub experience. Pubs are social spaces, and for pubs to prosper we need to be able to offer conviviality, sociability and a place to celebrate which we can now do as of last week. That said, there are challenges ahead as the sector starts out on the road to recovery with the immediate short term continuing to be uncertain and operationally disrupted. The tone of government messaging will be an important influence on consumer confidence. At present, the message is one of caution. We believe that a government review of the business rates system is long overdue and that VAT reduction should be permanent since the hospitality industry remains one of the most heavily taxed sectors. This would assist an industry that has been hit hard and aid hospitality’s employment and development of young workers which will be a key part of the UK’s economic recovery. Despite these challenges the role that the pub plays in the social fabric and culture of Britain as demonstrated by the pent-up demand and the rapid return of customers, is needed as never before, and therefore we are confident in our future.”

Just Eat Takeaway vulnerable to hostile takeover warns shareholder: One of the biggest shareholders in Just Eat Takeaway has accused the company of damaging its share price thanks to “deeply flawed” communication with investors, leaving it vulnerable to a cut-price bid. The Times reports that Cat Rock Capital Management, an activist investor with a 4.7% stake, said while the company had shown a strong operational performance, it was “deeply disappointed by the poor handling of its relationship with investors”. It said: “Its deeply flawed communication has made it the worst-performing online food delivery stock over the past two years.” Cat Rock noted that Just Eat Takeaway’s share price had declined by 11% over the past two years even as its gross merchandise value (GMV) – a key sector metric – had more than doubled. As a result, the company’s valuation had dropped by about three-quarters from a multiple of 11 times its revenue in mid-2019 to only 2.6 times revenue today, well below some rivals, Cat Rock said. “Amazingly, Just Eat Takeaway and Door-Dash are expected to generate similar amounts of GMV this year, yet DoorDash is worth over four times as much,” it added. Cat Rock was an investor in both Just Eat and Takeaway before the merger and in early 2019 was extremely vocal in its criticism of the management of Just Eat, pushing for it to pursue the merger. In its latest broadside, the Connecticut-based investment firm claims the merged company has not been transparent in communicating the costs of its investments and their short-term impact on underlying earnings, which are expected to be negative this year. It argued that the group had also caused “immense confusion” with its criticism of the potential of businesses such as logistics and grocery delivery, both of which it was investing in. Solutions mooted by Cat Rock include the sale of non-core assets and the exploration of “strategic combinations with other global players”. Alex Captain, founder and managing partner of Cat Rock, said that Just Eat Takeaway remained an excellent business, but its poor communication with the markets had left it “deeply undervalued and vulnerable to takeover bids at far below its intrinsic value”. A spokesman for Just Eat Takeaway said that it had “a regular dialogue with all its shareholders and we take all their views very seriously”.

Mark Davies to stand down from NewRiver board: Following the announcement on Monday (26 July) that NewRiver had entered into an agreement for the £222.3m sale of Hawthorn, its community pub business, to Admiral Taverns, it has announced that Mark Davies will now relinquish his position as the company’s chief financial officer and stand down from its board with immediate effect. Davies will remain in his position as chief executive officer of Hawthorn. Allan Lockhart, chief executive, said: “Mark has made an enormous contribution in helping to grow NewRiver to what it is today, having been with us every step of the way since we first floated on AIM in 2009 with seed capital of just £25 million. He has played a pivotal role in helping to shape our strategy and giving NewRiver the financial foundations to successfully pursue it. Mark was instrumental in enabling NewRiver to complete the transition to a fully unsecured balance sheet in 2018, meaning all of our assets are unencumbered. Mark has also been a driving force and visionary behind NewRiver’s pub strategy which began with us acquiring our first portfolio of 202 pubs from Marston’s in 2013, buying Hawthorn five years later and culminating in an agreed sale of our community pub business for £222.3 million this month. On behalf of everyone at NewRiver, we wish Mark the very best for the future and sincerely thank him for everything he has done for the business.” Davies said: “I have enjoyed the last 12 years at NewRiver where we took an IPO start-up company to a premium listing on the London Stock Exchange. It has been rewarding and challenging to create a retail REIT with £1 billion of assets and Hawthorn as a market leading pub company, with entrepreneurial spirit, a people-first culture and a focus on community. I am very proud of my team and thanks to everyone I have worked with. My time at NewRiver has been unique and rewarding, building two great businesses and leading so many talented people whose commitment, hard work, friendship and loyalty is something for which I will always be grateful. I wish NewRiver every success for the future.”

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